Can the Baltimore Ravens cover the spread against the Indianapolis Colts in the 2012 wild card game?

Picked by most of the sportsbooks to win, the Baltimore Ravens are 6.5 point favorites over the Indianapolis Colts. The winner of this game will meet either the Denver Broncos or the New England Patriots in the AFC Divisional playoffs next week, in their quest for the Conference title and their ticket to the Superbowl.

Let’s take a look at their stats breakdown a little because I am just not so sure the bookies have this pick right. The Ravens are a little different football team today then they were at the the beginning of the season. What I mean is something happened to them about mid season and they seemed to have lost a bit of their consistency.

Now some may say that it coincides with the loss of inside line backer Ray Lewis due to a torn triceps injury in week 6 against the Dallas Cowboys. Up until that point, the Ravens had won 5 of their 6 games. Yes, Lewis is a great linebacker, and more than that he was a true leader on the Raven’s defense, and is part of why he was a 12 time Pro Bowl pick. But even after the injury Lewis was found on the sidelines cheering his teammates on and inspiring them where he could.

But I think the Ravens problems seemed to go a little deeper and were more far reaching then not having Lewis on the field. The defensive line was pretty beat up throughout the mid season. They lost a number of corners, tackles and linebackers throughout the end of October and November. Thankfully for Baltimore fans most of those guys have healed and are probable for the balance of the playoffs.

Then there are some of the jokes that have been made after a few of the Raven’s losses this year. There have been comments such as, “I wonder which Baltimore is showing up” or “I wonder which Joe Flacco, Raven’s quarterback, will show up for today’s game”.

I think these kinds of comments are based purely out of seeing how inconsistent they have been. After a 10 and 2 start, they lost 3 games in a row to Pittsburgh, Washington and Denver. They then won against the Giants and lost last week to Cincinnati. That is 4 losses out of the last 5 games to end the season. The Colts have won 5 of their last 6 games, so they have a bit more momentum coming in to his game.

Taking a look at their overall ranks we see that Ravens have a 15th ranked offense and are ranked 16th for their passing and 11th for their rushing. Indianapolis is ranked a little higher at 10th overall and 7th on their passing but lower at 20th on the run.

On the defensive side of the ball, Baltimore has a 17th ranked defense and are 17th against the pass and 20th against the run. Where Indianapolis needs to improve their numbers is they are ranked 26th on defense and 21st against the pass and 22nd against the run.

I think one thing that will have a bit of an effect on this game is the recent staff changes in Baltimore. Shortly after the loss to the Washington Redskins in week 14, Baltimore fired the offensive coordinator Cam Cameron. Raven’s quarterbacks coach Jim Caldwell has stepped in to the position. Ironically, he is a former head coach at Indianapolis.

This kind of change shortly before heading in to the post season would be tough enough, but after the inconsistent play prior to that it might be a bit more of a shakeup then the offensive line can take. Some might also say that this is the kind of thing that can breathe new life in to an offense also.

There is no doubt that they are a great football team, but this kind of inconsistent play, the injuries they have suffered, and the loss of their offensive coordinator, depending on which Baltimore Ravens team shows up will affect the outcome of the game.

I haven’t spent much time of critiquing the offense of the Colts much. Like two other teams heading to the wild card games this week, Indianapolis also has a rookie quarterback they can be pretty proud of. He doesn’t have quite the completion stats of the other two, but his are respectable enough to have earned his team a post season spot.

Colt’s quarterback Andrew Luck has completed 339 for 627 and 54% with 23 touchdowns. The numbers he has acquired that have hurt them the most are that he has been sacked 41 times and he has thrown 23 interceptions. Despite some of the stats that can hurt a team, often seen from quarterbacks in their rookie season, Luck has managed to rally his team to a number of wins late in the season and they have clearly earned their playoff berth.

I have no doubt that 3 or 4 weeks ago, before the Ravens lost 3 in a row, I would likely have agreed with the books and picked Baltimore. But this is one game where I am going against the sportsbooks and I am picking the Indianapolis Colts to win the wild card game against the Baltimore Ravens. I am picking them to win by 2 points.

Whether you agree with my picks, or if you feel the sportsbooks are right about this wild card game and you want to bet on the favorites or maybe make your prediction and bet on the superbowl, be sure to bet with a safe sportsbook and never wager more than you can afford to lose. For a safe and trusted book, visit Bet Online Today!

 

 

My buddy MrDeposit over at Minimum Deposit Gambling actually disagreed with my picks and is picking the Ravens to win this game by two touchdowns. Visit his site to read the article to see why he thinks the Baltimore Ravens will win over the Indianapolis Colts in this Wild Card game.