Will the New England Patriots cover the spread against the Miami Dolphins in week 17?

In an AFC East matchup the 1st and 2nd place teams meet this week. At 11 wins and 4 losses the Patriots host the Dolphins, 7-8 at Gillette Stadium in New England.

The Patriots have won 8 of their last 9 games losing to San Francisco 2 weeks ago. In that game Tom Brady threw 2 interceptions and they also had 2 fumbles both of which are very uncharacteristic for Brady and New England. The Patriots are the kind of team that will not let the loss bother them and I think they will do very well against the Dolphins.

Miami has not been able to play consistently good on either side of the ball. Often if they had a game that the offense seemed to be having a good game, their defense would fail to stop the drives of their opponents and would end up getting out scored or have much lower times of possession. In other games the defense would make some big plays and get the ball back and force turnovers but at times those were the games their offense couldn’t converting drives into scoring plays.

Ending their season in 2nd place in the division the Dolphins do not have a shot at the playoffs and at this point but they would like to get the win to end the season at 50% as well as the confidence boost they would feel personally for beating their 1st place division rivals.

I really don’t see that happening at this point in the season though. Miami’s offense is ranked 26th overall and also 26th on the pass so not the greatest numbers. They are ranked 10th on the ground however so this has usually been their strength most of the year. But they also have the 3rd highest number of rushing fumbles at 12, with 5 of those lost, so that is not a nice stat to have.

When we look at their defense we see a little more mid range ranking. They have an overall defense rank of 18th although they are ranked 25th against passing plays. They do have a more acceptable rank of 10th against the ground game so we will likely not see the Patriot running backs get a lot of yards up the middle.

The Patriots are favored by the books to win this game by 10 points as of Friday evening and I think this is a little conservative, so let’s take a look at why I think that.

New England has the number 1 offense ranked in the entire league. They have 4386 yards passing and are ranked 8th in the league in their air attack. and they are over 2000 yards on the ground putting them in the 4th position.

Quarterback Tom Brady is averaging over 290 yards per game and their running backs average over 130 yards per game and although the Dolphins defense may slow down their rushing a little I do not see Miami keeping Brady from finishing the season with some very healthy numbers, or from keeping him from moving his team down the field.

If you look at the Patriot’s list of injured players you will see their top receivers and tight ends on the questionable list. Names like Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, as well as others. In spite of all that the Patriots continue to win games.

I think they will finish the season with the win also. Like I stated above even though the sportsbooks have the point spread on this game with the Patriots favored to win by 10 points, my personal pick is that they could easily cover a 14 point spread.

The talent of Tom Brady and the accuracy of his passing will get the ball to his receivers and I just do not think that Miami defense will make enough big plays to force them to turn the ball over on downs enough to be effecting in stopping from converting enough scoring drives to make a difference.

I have stated in previous articles that I think that as we head into the post season the teams that will fare the best in the playoffs are those that have a more balanced attack both on the ground as well as passing and the Patriots will likely work on both of their offensive games a bit against the Dolphins, but it would also not surprise me to see at least 2 if not 3 passing touchdowns from Brady this week.

This game between the Patriots and the Dolphins is one of those betting opportunities that is a safe bet. I honestly think they can and will cover that spread, even if it would move a little tomorrow, although it likely will not.

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Will the San Francisco 49ers cover the spread against the Arizona Cardinals in week 17?

In their final regular season game of 2012, the Arizona Cardinals meet the San Francisco 49ers at Candlestick Park in San Francisco.

The sports books have picked the 49ers as clear winners in this football game and the point spread is one of the highest spreads of the week. The bookies have picked San Francisco to win this game by 16.5 points.

It’s interesting that the Cardinals at 5 wins and 10 losses find themselves ending the season with this record since they had a 4 and 0 start at the beginning of the season, but things just went down hill from there. After winning the first 4 games they would find themselves winning only 1 more of the next 11 games in a truly disappointing season.

The 49ers won the game 24 to 3 when these two teams met earlier in the season during week 8 at the end of October. What is interesting is that Alex Smith was the 49er starting quarterback in that game which was actually the best game he had all year. He completed 18 for 19, 94.7% for 232 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Shortly after that game, Colin Kaepernick earned the starting position and it appears that he will keep the quarterback job.

San Francisco comes in to this game after a big loss to the Seattle Seahawks last week with a score of 42 to 13. It was that loss that dropped the 49ers to the 3rd seed spot from the 2nd seed spot and thus took away their first round bye. They could earn that spot back with a win and a loss by Green Bay.

The only win that the Cardinals have had since the end of September was 2 weeks ago against Detroit with a score of 38 to 10. In that game they intercepted Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford 3 times. Two of those interceptions were pick sixes and the third they were able to turn into a score.

Arizona currently is ranked 2nd in the league in intercepting their opponents. I think this is the biggest threat to San Francisco and has the potential to throw the 49ers off their game and take the momentum away from them.

This is an interesting pick. With the line at 16.5 points, and the fact that the defense played like they did against the Lions, I wonder if that will mean the sportsbooks will have a lot more action on the Cardinals for this game.

Even with the line where it is, and knowing that the if the Cardinal defense brings their “A” game they could be a serious threat to San Francisco’s passing game, I still have to pick the 49ers to win this game.

I also see them covering the spread. If this line moves any further than 16.5 I would withdraw that recommendation though. I would feel much more comfortable if the line was 14, but I would stick with it at 16.5 since I really think the 49ers will finish their season with a win.

For the latest odds, check out the matchup tool at Bet Online. We also have the matchup tool on our football odds page in the left navigation.

 

Will the Atlanta Falcons win the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in week 17?

Normally when I am checking the odds on any football game, I almost always check the line at Bet Online first. I then will often look at Sportsbetting, sometimes Bet Fred or William Hill as well.

Checking the line on this game on Thursday evening gives me some interesting results. Currently the odds have this game at even with no point spread. This could end up being a very interesting game.

The Atlanta Falcons come in to this game after having already clinched the NFC South Division Title, the first round bye and home field advantage for the playoffs. Tampa Bay is currently tied for 2nd place in the division with the Panthers, but with a win could end the season in 2nd, or tied for 2nd with the Saints depending on how they play Sunday. In either case the Buccaneers are out of it for post season play.

This does not mean that Tampa will not try to win, and in fact I think they will make the game very interesting. Looking at the overall ranks of their offenses they are a close match with the Falcons ranked 7th and the Buc’s ranked 10th.

Atlanta earns that rank mostly from their 5th ranked passing game and 28th ranked rushing game. Tampa is ranked 9th for their passing game and 16th on the ground. As far as defense the Flacons are ranked 23rd overall with a 23rd rank against the pass and 20th against the run. Tampa on the other hand has a 29th rank on defense with the worst defense against the pass at 32nd but the number one ranked defense against the run.

These two teams met in Tampa during week 12 and the Falcons won that game, but only by 1 point. This tight of a matchup is part of why there is no spread currently, and the Falcons could have their hands full in a number of areas.

If Tampa can improve their pass coverage a bit in this game, the Falcons may find it a bit more difficult to score then in their previous game with them.

Falcon wide receiver Roddy White did not practice this week, and although he has missed other practices and still played due to a knee injury, it is unknown if he will play against the Buc’s. Quarterback Matt Ryan does have other receivers to go to, but White, with 1309 yards and averaging 15 yards per reception, will be missed if he is not on the field. Ryan will likely run a lot of plays throwing to Julio Jones, with 1142 yards also averaging 15 yards per reception.

Interestingly, both Ryan and Tampa quarterback Josh Freeman have only been sacked 26 times this year which is tied for 4th lowest in the season. One would hope that Tampa concentrates on their coverage in the secondary and try and stop the short pass plays and screens since this is one place where the Buccaneers have been lacking.

Obviously with as accurate of an arm as Ryan has, they can’t play without rushing him at all, but I would think they need to pay close attention to the secondary, or they could possibly lose a handle on the game very quickly.

In their previous game in week 12, Ryan threw 26 for 32 and 353 yards and was sacked once for 8 yards. Tampa’s Freeman threw 19 for 30 and 256 yards and was sacked twice for 8 yards. Atlanta won that game 24 to 23 and it was the closest game they played the entire year.

It’s interesting that the line on this game is currently even and the books are not giving a clear edge to either team. I will however go out on a limb and give the edge to Atlanta. I think the Falcons can win this game by 2 points.

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Will the Denver Broncos win the game against the Kansas City Chiefs in week 17?

In an AFC West matchup, the Kansas City Chiefs with 2 wins and 13 losses meet the Division Champions Denver Broncos with a 12 an 3 record. They met earlier in the season during week 12, the Broncos won that game with a score of 17 to 9.

Denver comes in to this game on a 10 game winning streak so to state they are on a roll or that they have any momentum would be a silly understatement. Although some analysts might disagree with me, I personally think that they are not only one of the best teams in the AFC but I think they are possibly the best team in the entire league this year.

The reason I feel that way is centered on the sheer talent, intelligence and leadership of their quarterback Peyton Manning. He is one of the best backs in the league and has been completing 68% of his passes and has thrown for 4355 yards and 34 touchdowns.

In addition to his passing ability, he reads a defensive line as well or better than any other quarterback in the NFL. He is known for calling an audible and changing plays at the line of scrimmage because something he sees or senses makes him realize that he needs to make a play adjustment.

Denver is one of the best in the league with 1st down conversions as well as yards gained. Although the Broncos offensive success based heavily on their passing game, they have been increasing their use of running plays, however when they are able to move the ball down field as well as they are in the air they are sure to concentrate on that the most.

What is the point spread in this football game?

Late on Tuesday night upon checking the sportsbooks I see the oddsmakers have quite a large point spread on this game. The line is floating from 16 to 17 points on this Broncos game. I must say I do have a lot of faith that Denver will win.

This might actually be one of those games that end up in a big blowout, but I would certainly be very apprehensive placing a bet on this game if the line would be higher. It’s not that I think that Denver couldn’t make the points, but when you choose a game to bet on, you have to make smart betting choices.

To make this bet at 16 points you are betting they will win by more than 2 touchdowns. Yes I do think that the Denver Broncos will cover this spread, but I would have to rethink my position on this game if the line moves past that 17 point mark.

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Will the Houston Texans win the game against the Indianapolis Colts in week 17?

Another great matchup of two AFC South teams. The Division Champions Houston Texans meet the 2nd place team Indianapolis Colts.

The Texans at 10 and 5 travel to Indianapolis for their final regular season game with the 9 and 5 Colts. Each of these teams has clinched their playoff berth. Houston finds themselves in a must win position in order to help them hold on to the first round bye. They could lose that #1 seed spot if they lose and New England as well as Denver wins.

There are also a few other scenarios in which the Texans could drop at least one seed spot, but each one will only take place with a Houston loss. The Colts will hold on to a wild card spot win or lose, but what is to be determined is which teams will meet in what positions based upon the outcomes of the final games.

These two met in a game just two weeks ago. Houston won that game with a score of 29 to 17. Houston quarterback Matt Schaub threw for 261 yards and Adrian Foster ran for 165 yards. Having played each other recently, it should come as no surprise that the sports books have picked the Texans as favorites to win this game also.

What is the point spread on this game and will Houston be able to cover?

Let’s take a closer look at the rankings of their offenses and defenses based upon how well they played this season.

The rank of the Indianapolis offense overall is 9th with their passing game ranked 7th and their ground game ranked 22nd. Houston on the other hand has an overall offense rank of 8th with their passing game ranked 15th and their running game ranked 7th.

These ranks match them up fairly evenly with the Colts being a little stronger in their passing game and the Texans having a little stronger ground game.

When we look closer at the defenses we see a similar match in rankings against offensive strengths. On the defensive side of the football the Colts are ranked 26th overall and the Texans are ranked 9th.

The key with this game will be the disparity between where the teams are strong on offense and how well their opponents can defend against that strength. Since the Colts are stronger with their air game, they will be going up against a Texan defense that is ranked 15th against the pass.

And since the Texans strength is in their running game they will be contending with a Colt defense that is ranked 30th defending the run.

Obviously it’s not only about their ranks, but how well they actually play in real world scenarios against their opponents and the plays they run. If we look at their game from a few weeks ago we see that the Texan quarterback Shaub completed 23 for 31, 74% of his passing attempts and one touchdown and Foster scored 2 touchdowns on the ground.

Looking at the odds on this game on Tuesday evening I see the line has the Texans as 7 point favorites. If Houston can play close to the level they did in their previous game I see no reason why they shouldn’t cover that spread, although I do expect this game has the potential to be a close one.

No matter how much we look at the numbers, keep in mind that the Colts will have spent a good bit of time studying replays from their previous game and will do their best not to make the same kinds of mistakes that cost them the game before.

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Will the Cincinnati Bengals make the spread against the Baltimore Ravens in week 17?

This is a very interesting AFC North matchup. The Division Champions Ravens face the 2nd place Bengals in their final game.

It’s ironic that these two teams met in the season opener also, with the Ravens winning that game 44 to 13. If we compare the way these two teams played in the beginning of the season to the way they have each played the past few weeks we see completely different stories.

Baltimore certainly had a little better start then they are playing now and Cincinnati is just the opposite. Normally the best judge of how a team is currently playing is their recent games. The Ravens have lost 3 of their last 4 games and the Bengals have won 3 of their last 4 games.

This shows a major improvement by the Bengals and they have come from behind and moved into a playoff spot that many thought they could not earn just weeks ago. On the other hand, Baltimore, after having a 9 and 2 start has been slipping this past month. Just weeks ago it appeared the Ravens would be earning a first round bye but are now in the 4th seed position. They have clinched the Division Title as well as the playoff spot.

The AFC playoff picture does not change with this weeks games as far as which teams are in or not, but depending on the outcome of this weeks games, it may affect which football teams earn the bye week. Neither of these two teams is in a position that could earn them the bye, but the outcome will affect who they meet in the wild card games.

The Ravens have a better record, can they win against the Bengals?

No I do not think that Baltimore will win this game. They have been a bit beat up and have suffered a number of injuries. They have lost line backers, defensive ends, as well as running backs and wide receivers.

The ranking of each of their offenses are fairly close. Baltimore has an overall rank of 15th with 13th for passing and 15th on the ground. Cincinnati has an overall rank of 20th with 16th for passing and 14th for rushing.

When we compare the rankings of the defenses we see a slightly different picture. Overall the Ravens defense is ranked 20th, they are ranked 17th against the pass and 24th against the ground game. The Bengals have an overall 6th ranked defense and are 10th against the passing game and 8th against the rush.

Will this be the edge that the Bengals need to conquer? I think this is part of why their overall game will be better. The Bengals have intercepted their opponents passes 13 times this year so that is a bit of a threat. But even more of a threat is the fact that they rank 2nd in sacks.

Cincinnati has sacked their opponent’s quarterback 47 times and only Denver has done this more with 48. This may be the biggest threat to Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco and his offense, and with this extra pressure in the backfield he may be on the move a bit more, which he honestly has handled well a good bit of the season up until the last few weeks.

What is the line on this game?

The sports books have the odds on this game at 3 points with the Bengals as the favorites. Like others, had this game taken place last month I probably would have picked the Ravens but not now.

I do think that Baltimore will make Cincinnati work for it, but based upon the way they have played their last 4 games I think the Bengals have a very clear edge over the Ravens. Yes they beat the Giants last week, but they have not been winning games against opponents that are at the top of their game the past month.

I think that the Bengals are at the top of their game, and they may well improve that game even more this week as well as their playoff game or games. Based on this I am picking the Bengals to win this game, as well as cover the spread. In fact I think that Cincinnati could cover a spread of 4 points. I would like to extend that to 6 points, but I am forcing myself to stay conservative and bet more safely.

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Will the Green Bay Packers win the game against the Minnesota Vikings in week 17?

The Minnesota Vikings should be commended for getting to the spot they did. Although they have been in the hunt for a playoff spot for a while, a month ago they weren’t looking like they had a shot at making it to the post season. Coming in to the game this week they are currently in the number 6 seed spot in the NFC wildcard and a win against the Packers would clinch the spot.

They could actually keep the spot with a loss, but only if the Bears, Cowboys and Giants also lose this week. The Vikings have won their last 3 games and in fact their last loss, 4 weeks ago was to Green Bay. The Packers won that game 23 to 14.

Minnesota has been turning some impressive games the past few weeks and the win last week against the Houston Texans, who currently are the number 1 seed spot in the AFC with the best record in the league, was a great show of their talent.

Although it was an impressive game and they managed to stop the Texans from scoring a touchdown the entire game I do not see them being able to pull that off against NFC rivals Green Bay Packers.

I admit that Viking’s running back Adrian Peterson is one of the best if not the best in the NFL, but I also think the Packers defense will be ready for him. In last week’s game against Houston, the Texans defense was somewhat effective against Peterson and the Vikings ground game, although Minnesota won that game.

If Minnesota is on a roll, will the stop the Packers from covering the spread?

I think facing Green Bay will be a different story for the Vikings. Green Bay has won 5 of their last 6 games (one of those wins again the Vikings). Quarterback Aaron Rodgers is having a great year and he is completing 67% of his passes and is averaging over 7 yards per pass.

But one thing is even more important than the great passing numbers that Rodgers has been turning in this year. That is that he is winning games. With San Francisco’s loss last week the Packers have moved into the number 2 seed spot so a win this week would earn them a first round bye and clinch at least one home game in the Divisional Round.

The Minnesota Vikings will come in to this game with a lot of heart and will play a tough game, but in the end I think the Packers will defeat them. The bookies have the line on this game at 3 points as of late Monday night. I think they will cover that and in fact I would bet on the Packers winning and would give 5 points.

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Week 16 2012 Regular Season Picks and football game final score results

With the season winding down there were a number of very important games this week with quite a few teams in the NFC that were in must win situations if they want to stay in the hunt for a playoff spot.

It’s been a very exciting season and there were a number of teams that turned around a bad start to the season and there have been a few teams that have made.

If you came here looking for the results and final scores for the week 16 2012 games, after the football games take place, I will update the page with the final scores so you can see the results of the game to compare against my picks and what the odds were at the time for that game.

#1
Atlanta Falcons against the Detroit Lions

The books had this game with the Falcons winning by 3.5 points on Monday afternoon. I picked the Falcons to win by 7 points. By Friday night the line had moved to 4 points. The Atlanta Falcons win this game over the Detroit Lions 31 to 18.

#2
Indianapolis Colts against the Kansas City Chiefs

Oddsmakers had the Colts winning this game by 6 points. I picked them as having no problem on making that spread and extended it to allowing 8 points. The Indianapolis Colts win this game 20 to 13.

#3
Washington Redskins against the Philadelphia Eagles

The bookies have this game with the Redskins winning by 4.5 points. I picked Washington as clear winners and stated that they could win by 6 points even without Griffin.

The Washington Redskins win this game with a final score of Washington 27 to Philadelphia 20.

#4
San Francisco 49ers against the Seattle Seahawks

This week’s installment of our Offsides series of opposing views up an upcoming game is an NFC West matchup. The books had the line moving sometimes between even to favoring the 49ers to win the game by 1 point. I picked San Francisco to win by 3 points. A very impressive game by the Seahawks. They pretty much dominated the entire game and won against the 49ers with a final score of 42 to 13.

#5
Pittsburgh Steelers against the Cincinnati Bengals

This is really a great AFC matchup and both teams are in must win positions. Oddsmakers have picked the Steelers to win this game over the Bengals by 3.5 points. I went against the bookies on this and picked Cincinnati to win this game by 3 points.

The Bengals do in fact win this game with a final score of 13 to 10. This was very important to Cincinnati as it allows them to hold on to the 6th seed playoff spot.

#6
New Orleans Saints against the Dallas Cowboys

As of Friday evening the sportbooks had the line on this game at 1 point with Dallas winning. I wanted to take the Saints in this game but just can’t the way they have played the last few weeks. I suggested Dallas would be the side to bet even if the points were slightly higher.

The New Orleans Saints win this game in overtime 34 to 31 against the Dallas Cowboys.

#7
Cleveland Browns against the Denver Broncos

On Friday night the odds on this game at the bookies was Denver winning the game by 13.5 points. I think that the Broncos had a clear advantage to win and picked Denver to cover the spread. Peyton Manning does it again and the broncos win 34 to 12.

#8
New York Giants against the Baltimore Ravens

The Giants are favorites in the game by 1 point over the Ravens by some books and by up to 2.5 points on others. I picked the Giants to win by 4 points. The Giants just could not get it together and the Ravens won this game 33 to 14.

#9
Tennessee Titans against the Green Bay Packers

The Green Bay Packers are the clear favorites in this game. The books have them winning by 12.5 to 14 points. Saturday afternoon Bet Online had them winning by 13 points. I think Green Bay has a clear win and covers the points fine.

Coming as no surprise to me the Packers win this game with a clear edge, like I stated. They win with a final score of 55 Green Bay to 7 Tennessee.

 

 

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Will the Green Bay Packers win the game against the Tennessee Titans in week 16?

The Green Bay Packers, picked as 13 point favorites over the Tennessee Titans meet in week 16 at Lambeau Field in Green Bay. The Packers at 10 and 4 lead the NFC North and have clinched the division title as well as home field advantage for the playoffs.

Tennessee has not had the greatest of years and at 5 wins and 9 losses they have not had any playoff hopes for a few weeks. It’s interesting to look at their rankings since the Titans’ offense and defense is ranked 23rd and the Packers have an offensive rank of 17th and 14th for their defense.

As well as Green Bay has played some games you might think that they would hold a little higher position especially in passing. The Packer passing game is ranked 13th and this will likely cause a lot of problems for the Titans.

Their defense is 19th against the pass and they allow an average of just over 7 yards per attempt. But their biggest defense stat that will work against them is that they are ranked 25th against passing touchdowns.

I did see that linebacker Will Witherspoon is probable for the game with Green Bay after a hamstring injury, and that will help the Titan line a bit but they need more help than that honestly. They come in to this game after having lost the last 3 of the last 4 games and looking back over the last few games I think it will be difficult to have any confidence this week against Green Bay.

What are the odds on this football game?

Checking the line at Bet Online the line has the Packers winning by 13 but at Bet Fred and William Hill the line is 12.5 points.

With Alex Green and James Starks not expected to play in this game the Packers will likely not access their running game very much, although they can still go to Cedric Benson, and possibly Randall Cobb since he did participate in practice after a recent shoulder injury.

The Green Bay Packers has won many of their games this year due to their game in the air. I think this week’s game will show some of the reasons why Aaron Rodgers, quarterback for the Packers, has a super bowl ring and is a pro bowl quarterback pick. I think that against the Titans he will throw at least 2 touchdowns and would be surprised if he doesn’t throw for 300 yards or more.

Now he will have to be careful since Tennessee has 16 interceptions this year, so they certainly have some potential on their defense and have been known to make big plays and force turnovers.

With the point spread at just below 2 touchdowns I think the Green Bay Packers will have a clear win and I see them covering the points.

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