Will the Atlanta Falcons cover the spread against the Detroit Lions football game in week 16?

The NFC South Division Champions Atlanta Falcons have clinched their playoff spot. This week they meet the Detroit Lions in what some have said is an unimportant game.

Actually this game is important to the Falcons for a number of reasons. They would like nothing more than to finish out the season with wins and in fact a win this week will guarantee them the top seed spot and home field advantage. They are also fighting for the first round bye but that may not be determined until the last week.

In recent weeks there have been a number of stories or blog postings stating that the Falcons and their record was not earned with hard work like the records of some others in the NFC had been. That myth is fairly easy to debunk, just look at this past week’s game with the NY Giants.

The Giants had been picked by sports books to win that game by 2 points. Atlanta totally and completely dominated the game and shut out the Giants and won the football game 34 to 0. They earned that win and showed that not only do they have a championship caliber offense, but a defense that knows how to do what it takes to stop their opponent’s offensive drives.

But what about the Lions, will the Falcons win and what is the spread?

As of Monday afternoon the books have the Falcons winning this game by 3.5 points. I actually think this number is way too low and the spread should be more like 6 or 8 points.

I have said this before and will mention it again here. There are no gimmies. But the likelihood of Detroit coming in to this game and dominating the Falcons is not very high.

The Lions do have a really good quarterback on their roster and ion fact in overall numbers they are ranked #2 in offense and #1 in passing. That is due mostly to the numbers of Matthew Stafford. He has been completing just fewer than 60% of his passes and could hit 5000 yards for his second consecutive year. In order for him to accomplish this he would have to have back to back 400 yard games in the last 2 weeks and I just do not see that happening, although he may end the season close and should get proper kudos for that.

Because of the potential threat of Detroit’s talented quarterback, the Falcons will have to play the kind of defense on Saturday that they played against the Giants, or Stafford could throw up some big numbers and gain an early edge. I have quite a bit of confidence they can in fact do this.

I think they will in fact be very effective and stop the Lions from getting the big yards in the air and by so doing will gain a large edge over the Lions. I look for the Falcons to win this game by 7 points.

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What games did I pick for week 15 and what were the results?

This past week, #15 of the regular NFL Season, I made a total of 10 picks for the football games and posted an article for each one. In each case I listed what the odds were on that game at the time the article was posted, and my thoughts on whether I thought the team picked by the sportsbooks would win and whether they would cover the spread.

In a few cases I totally disagreed with the bookies, and in a few cases I thought the books were being too conservative. Today I post the results of each of those picks. I didn’t do too bad, although in a few cases I was off on the points, and in one case where I disagreed with the book’s picks on who would win I was correct.

I have linked to each article in case you are interested in reading my thoughts on the game. Each article was posted up to a day before the games, except for the last one which was posted on Sunday morning a few hours before the kickoff of the one o’clock games.

My picks for week 15 and the results are as follows:

#1
Cincinnati Bengals against the Philadelphia Eagles.

The bookies had the Bengals winning this game by 3 points. I thought that it was a smart bet to take the Bengals on this game and they did in fact win over the Eagles with a score of 34 to 13.

#2
Dallas Cowboys and the Pittsburgh Steelers.

This was my article for this week’s Offsides article. Some of the bookies had this game as even although I did find that Bet Fred and a few other books had the game with the Steelers winning by 1.5 points. I argued on the side of the Cowboys to win.

Watching the game this afternoon shows the Steelers putting on a great performance. After being down early in the game, the Steelers turn it on and come back to tie the score. Then they go back and forth throughout the second half and the score is tied again late in the 4th quarter.

The clock winds down and the game goes into overtime. Dallas wins this game in overtime 27 to 24.

#3
Green Bay Packers against the Chicago Bears.

I wrote this game up on Wednesday and at the time the books had the Packers winning this game by 3 points. My own pick on this had them winning by 5 points. Green Bay won this game by 8 with a score of 21 to 13.

#4
Denver Broncos over the Baltimore Ravens.

On Wednesday evening the line on this game had the Broncos winning this game by 2 points. I extended that in my pick that my boy Manning would get the job done and took the Broncos to win at a very conservative 4 points. The Broncos won that game at a score of 34 to 17.

#5
Washington Redskins against the Cleveland Browns.

The Books had the Skins winning this by a point. I suggested that was too low and picked them by 3 points.

I also suggested that as long as Cousins could have a good game and Alfred Morris could do well they would do quite well against the Browns and that is exactly what happened. The Redskins won that game 38 to 21.

#6
New York Giants against the Atlanta Falcons.

The books picked the Giants and the Falcons at even and there was no spread on the game Friday afternoon. At that time I picked the Giants by 2 points. I was certainly off on this game and the Falcons turned in an impressive game and they shut out the Giants to win 34 to 0.

#7
New England Patriots against San Francisco 49ers

Coming in to this game the Broncos had the #1 ranked offense and was #1 in points scored. The sportsbooks had the Patriots winning this game by 5 points. I agreed that they would win and actually mentioned that I thought they might win by up to a touchdown but in order to bet safe stay with the spread.

The 49ers held them off and dominated the first part of the game. Down by 28 points, Tom Brady showed why he is one of the best quarterbacks in the league right now and brings the Broncos back into the game in the 2nd half.

Score is tied in the 4th quarter at 31 before the 49ers score again. The San Francisco 49ers won this game over the New England Patriots with a final score of 41 to 34. This football game ends up being one of the biggest upsets of the week.

#8
Houston Texans against the Indianapolis Colts.

The books picked the Texans to win by 9.5. I suggested they would win but I only gave 6 points. Houston won that game 29 to 17.

#9
Seattle Seahawks against the Buffalo Bills

The books picked Seattle by 5.5 points and I agreed, and picked Seattle to win and cover the points. Seattle goes on to win this game 50 to 17.

#10
Minnesota Vikings against the St Louis Rams

Many of the books had that game as the Rams winning by 2.5 points. I disagreed with that and suggested taking the Vikings would win and giving 2 points. The Vikings won that game with a score of 36 to 22.

 

Who will win the Minnesota Vikings against the St Louis Rams football game in week 15?

Most of the sportsbooks have the line on this game with the St Louis Rams winning by 2.5 points. Let’s take a closer look at why they picked the Rams.

Overall the Vikings offense is ranked 24th and the Rams are 25th. The Vikings have struggled getting much going on with their passing game, but it is more about them not going to the air very often more then them not being able to.

Quarterback Christian Ponder is completing over 62%, and looking at the numbers he is having a better year then he is being given credit for since they mostly concentrate on their running game. They will likely run the ball a lot in this game too, since that is their strength.

The Rams have not been very dominating either on the ground or in the air, until their last few games. They have won their last 3 games and have been playing better in the latter part of the season; I am just not sure it is enough to win against the Vikings.

Can the St Louis Rams cover the point spread in the game against the Minnesota Vikings?

No I really don’t think they can. In fact I am picking the Minnesota Vikings to win over the St Louis Rams. I am sure a lot will not agree with me here, especially the sports books.

I could be wrong on this but I am sticking with my picks. I think the Vikings have the edge in this game. Some will say that running back Adrian Peterson is not up to it since he has had limited practice this week but I think he will have another big game.

He just keeps turning in big numbers and is averaging 6 yards per carry and has 10 touchdowns. He currently has 1600 yards and is looking at cracking the single season record of 2105 set my Eric Dickerson in 1984. He could actually break that record by averaging 170 yards per game.
St Louis will be looking to try and stop him from doing that, but I do not think they can.

If the Rams can play today like they did against San Francisco 2 weeks ago, they have a good shot at giving the Vikings a hard time, but in the end I think the Vikings will win. I am picking the Minnesota Vikings over the St Louis Rams by 2 points.

 

Can the Seattle Seahawks cover the point spread against the Buffalo Bills in week 15?

Picked by the sportsbooks as favorites to win over the Buffalo Bills, the Seattle Seahawks with 8 wins and 5 losses are currently seated at the 5th seed spot for the NFC in the playoff picture.

With 2 other teams in the NFC at 8 and 5, and 3 teams only one game out the Seattle need to win this week to hold on to their wild card spot.

The Bills have had their share of mishaps and mistakes throughout the season. I think the bulk of their problems have stemmed from inconsistencies. Neither their offense nor their defense has received a top overall ranking, but they are ranked 6th for their ground game.

But throughout many of the games this year they were just not able to convert their rushing numbers into more scoring drives then their opponents. That, or when they would make a decent play on defense and cause a fumble or other turnover, their would have difficulty turning it into a score, or they would get into the red zone and end up having to take a field goal instead of a touchdown due to a failed scoring drive.

If the Seahawks are picked to win, can they cover the points over the Bills?

Friday night when I last checked the odds; Bet Online, Bet Fred as well as William Hill each had Seattle picked to win by 5.5 points. I think they should be able to make this spread.

Seattle has a good bit riding on this game and how well they do will be directly reflected in whether they will be considered a real threat to San Francisco next week and whether they have what it takes to compete in the post season if they do in fact make it to the playoffs.

Any single loss by Seattle could drop them out of the playoff hopes depending on the outcome of this week’s games. The football games the NFC conference teams are involved in this week and next will have a lot to do with how the playoff picture looks when the regular season winds down, and as close as the standings are for those battling it out for a wild card spot, the fate of a few will likely not be determined until the final games are played.

Although I would honestly not be too surprised for the Bills to put on a good show and play a good game on Sunday, to place a bet on this game I would be quite comfortable in picking the Seahawks to win and for them to cover the 5.5 point spread.

I am not nearly as comfortable in picking them to make it into the post season and in fact, I think that the Washington Redskins will make it to the playoffs, and for them to do so, either the Bears or the Seahawks will have to vacate a spot and I think the Seahawks are the most likely candidate, but that may not be determined this week.

 

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Can the Houston Texans cover the point spread against the Indianapolis Colts in week 15?

Leading the AFC South the Houston Texans take on their 2nd place division rivals Indianapolis Colts in what is one of the most important games the Colts have had all year. The books have picked the Texans to win the game by 9.5 points.

At first glance I thought, yea no problem. But let’s look at this game a little closer since that might not be a smart bet. Sure the Texans are leading the division and currently hold the best record in the AFC, but that doesn’t give them an automatic pass.

The Colts have won 7 of their last 8 games so they have certainly made a number of corrections on both sides of the ball compared to the first few weeks in the regular season. Indianapolis is ranked 7th in offense overall and 8th in passing.

This will keep the Texans defense busy and certainly will not provide them with an easy win like some may think if they are simply looking at the win loss record alone. Quarterback Andrew Luck has had a number of very good games the last few weeks and he could possibly have a 300 yard game on Sunday.

The Texans have suffered a handful of injuries on their defensive line and this week line backer Brooks Reed as well as corner Alan Ball are out. Tackle Derek Newton and linebacker Darryl Sharpton are questionable but with adjustments to their line they are still a threat.

Can the Indianapolis Colts upset the Houston Texans and win?

I don’t really think so. On the defense they have JJ Watt a defensive end that is just having a phenomenal year. He currently has 16.5 sacks which is second in the league this year. That makes him a huge threat to any quarterback, and Andrew Luck will likely find himself on the ground at least a few times because of this man.

Texan quarterback Matt Schaub is completing just over 64% of his passing attempts and is averaging a little over 7 yards per reception with Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels his most common go to guys, but they aren’t the only ones. He has a few other receivers, ends and backs he can choose from as well.

The Texans also have a bit of a run game too. In fact Adrian Foster has 1148 yards and 14 touchdowns. Whether it’s the game on the ground or what they are able to do in the air that does the trick, it will likely be the fact that the Texans have a much more well rounded game offense that wins the football game for them.

The most difficult choice I must make is whether the Texans can cover the spread. If the Colts can come out and get the edge early in the game, or at least match scoring drives in the first half then the ability for Houston to cover will be cut by a large amount.

Yes I am picking the Texans to win this game. But I think they will have enough difficulty making the spread that as long as the line stays at 9.5 then I would end up taking the Colts. I look for the Texans to win by 6.

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Will the New England Patriots beat the San Francisco 49ers in week 15?

Looking at the schedule of this week’s games I gotta say a few of the matchups this week are going to be listed among some of the most exciting and most important games of the season so far. The football game between the San Francisco 49ers and the New England Patriots is one of those games.

The New England Patriots, Leading the AFC East and division champs, meet the NFC West leaders San Francisco 49ers at Gillette Stadium in New England on Sunday night. Each team currently holds the 2nd seed spot in their conference and each one of them needs the win to hold on to their spot in the playoff round and the bye week.

Looking at what the sports books have the odds at on this game I have question this slightly and take a much closer look before making my betting choice. The bookies have the point spread on this game at 5 points with the Patriots winning.

I admit I am a fan of Tom Brady and New England, but being a fan alone does not win the football game. Both the Patriots and the 49ers are each having a very good year that is why they are each leading their divisions.

New England is currently ranked number 1 in offense, 5th in passing and 7th on the ground. But before you get too excited, San Francisco is ranked number 2 in defense. They are 5th in sacks and have 38 for the season. This will keep the offensive line of New England busy trying to stop the penetration of the 49er defense.

Are you saying the San Francisco 49ers will beat the New England Patriots?

No I’m not. San Francisco has a great defense and their offense is ranked 2nd on the ground but I think that the Patriots have been making a lot of improvements on both sides of the ball. Tom Brady has been hitting a little over 64% and although they do not have a top ranked ground game, Stevan Ridley is over 1000 yards and is averaging 4.6 yards per carry.

I think the Patriots are more versatile on their offense. Brady has many receivers to pick from and he has shown that no matter what coverage his opponents throw at him he can always seem to find someone to get the ball to and make the yards.

Would I bet on the Patriots with a 5 point spread? Yes I would, but if the line moves at all I would probably change my mind. In reality I think New England has it in them to win this game by a touchdown, but when it comes to placing a bet you have to look at the odds and bet safe.

In the end I do think that the Patriots are a safe bet. If they can win this game they have a softer schedule for their last two games so they could end up winning the divisional round bye week.

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Will the New York Giants beat the Atlanta Falcons in week 15?

If you want to talk about an NFC matchup for this week, you have to mention the Giants and Falcons game. New York meets Atlanta at the Georgia Dome on Sunday afternoon.

Even though the Falcons have clinched the division title they are looking to win in order to hold on to the first place seed in the playoffs and get the first round bye week. With 11 wins and only 2 losses this year they certainly will be involved in the play offs, but with a number of division and conference matchups scheduled in the final weeks of the season, it just hasn’t been determined at what capacity and what seed spot they will hold on to.

The Giants, with an 8 and 5 record are in a must win situation for the balance of the regular season. They lead the NFC East, but the Redskins and Cowboys are only 1 game behind in the division. They must win this game since a loss by them, with a win by either of their division rivals, could unseat them from their 4th seed position.

Time and time again over the years, many analysts, football fans and sometimes even the bookies do not always remember that the Giants have often played their best football games under pressure. With their backs up against the wall they have proven numerous times they can come back and win games when it appeared they would not, and with a win this week against the Falcons, they would show why they are the champions.

Who do the sportsbooks pick to win the game between the Atlanta Falcons and the New York Giants, and what are the odds?

As of Friday afternoon checking the line on this game at a number of books, I was surprised to see the line at even. The odds makers do not seem to have enough faith in either team to pick a clear winner in this game.

Looking at their offense rankings; Falcons 8th and Giants 9th, passing Atlanta 4th and NY 9th, they are pretty closely matched. On the ground the Falcons have a rank of 28th to the Giants 15th. That doesn’t necessarily mean that the entire game will be won or lost with the defense, but each defense will have a lot of responsibility to get their jobs done.

Even though the Giants are ranked 24th in defense, they have a ranking of 6th against the pass and this means that they will be ready and aware of how important it will be to keep heavy pressure on Falcon quarterback Matt Ryan and his key receivers Tony Gonzalez and Julio Jones. Normally Roddy White would make that list also but it has not been determined if he will play Sunday due to a knee injury.

The football game between these two top rated NFC teams will certainly be a good one. They each have great ranked quarterbacks and both have proven they can make the plays needed to win games. I honestly think that when the smoke clears that the Giants will be the ones to conquer this week.

I think that as long as New York can keep from making a lot of mistakes, especially during the early parts of the game and get some momentum during the first half, they will be able to shut down Ryan and keep the Falcons from gaining the edge.

Even though the books did not give any points in the spread I will. I think that the Giants can win this game by 2 points.

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Will the Washington Redskins beat the Cleveland Browns in week 15?

Tied for second place in the NFC East the Washington Redskins play the Cleveland Browns this week at Cleveland Brown Stadium.

After winning their last 3 games the Browns are looking for a win this week and although they are in the hunt for a wild card spot, their hopes of actually landing that spot are shrinking with each win by the Jets, Bengals or any of the other AFC leaders.

Even though the Browns are at 5 wins and eight losses, they have won their last 3 games. They won against Kansas City, Oakland and 3 weeks ago the Steelers. They certainly should be congratulated for those wins.

The Washington Redskins are hot right now and playing very well. A lot of that success is directly related to the success of Robert Griffin III. RG3 suffered a knee injury this past week against the Ravens. He has only limited participation in practice so he may not play Sunday.

It appears that rookie Kirk Cousins will start at the quarterback position. In last weeks game against Baltimore, he stepped in when Griffin was hurt, down by 8 points, and threw a touchdown pass bringing them within 2 points. Then he ran it in for the two point conversion and tied the game. They won in overtime by a field goal.

The Washington offense is rated number one in rushing, and the number one rusher is a rookie by the name of Alfred Morris. He has run for 1232 yards this year, and he is a great asset to the Redskins and I see him having a big game this week.

What are the odds on the Washington Redskins to win the game against the Cleveland Browns?

When I checked the online sports book Bet Online I see they have picked the Washington Redskins to win by 1 point over the Cleveland Browns.

The Redskins have developed a nice running game this year and although not having Griffin in watching the few plays that Cousins ran and his subsequent run in for the 2 points to tie the game last week, was impressive. If he can have a decent game and Morris has a good game I think they will do very well against the Browns.

The Browns defense is 15th against the run and I think they will have trouble stopping Morris from gaining ground and getting first downs. The books have this at 1 point. I do think the Redskins can beat the Browns and even with Griffin out I think they can win by 3 points.

 

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Will the Denver Broncos beat the Baltimore Ravens in week 15?

Leading the AFC North the Baltimore Ravens meet the leaders of the AFC West Denver Broncos in one of the most important AFC matchup’s this week.

At 10 wins and 3 losses the Broncos sit in the 3rd seed playoff spot. With a win this week and a loss by the Patriots they would move in to the 2nd seed spot which could earn them a first round bye week. The game is very important to the Ravens since a win would clinch the division title for them and move them into the 3rd seed spot putting them at a possible only one game out from the bye week.

Plenty of incentive for both teams, so let’s look a little closer at who will win and how they will play the game. Obviously they will both play a good game but only one of them will come out on top.

Baltimore has had a great season in the win loss category. In fact at 9 and 4, they have actually won more games than their offense or defense ranks in the league would lead you to believe. They are ranked 18th in offense and 24th in defense overall. Look at that again.

More than 50% of the league has better ranked offenses and defenses. Even though they have not been racking up huge numbers in stats, their win ratio speaks for itself. What the Ravens have been doing well with is winning games.

They will force an opponent to turn the ball over during a crucial time in the game, or a very critical drive, or they will drive down the field and get a touchdown or field goal at just the right time to take away their opponents momentum. They have just been doing what it takes to get the job done.

They have lost their last two games with Washington and Pittsburgh so they will be looking to break that streak but I do not think they will be able to do so. The Broncos have been very effective during the second half of many of their games this year and they are also playing very well during the second half of the regular season.

What is the spread and will the Denver Broncos make the points against the Baltimore Ravens?

As of late Wednesday evening the line on this game has the bookies picking the Denver Broncos to win over the Baltimore Ravens by 2 and a half points. For my own personal picks, I would extend that to 4 points, but I am a big fan of Manning and the Broncos, so I will stay on track and discuss why I think the extra points are valid.

The Ravens will try and take an early lead since they know how explosive the the Broncos and their quarterback Peyton Manning has been in the second half of games this season. The Denver defense is ranked 4th in the league overall and I think they will put enough pressure on Joe Flacco to cut their scoring capabilities.

On the offensive side of the football is where the Broncos really do their best work. Quarterback Peyton Manning is one of the best in the league. His completion percentages have climbed to 68% and he is over 3800 yards for the year.

The Ravens will be looking to try and cut that percentage, but Manning’s offensive line has been providing great pass protection and providing they can keep that up against the Baltimore defense, they will be able to move the ball and keep the drives alive and score on a high percentage of their possessions.

Another thing that Denver has done well the past few weeks is run the ball. I look for them to do that well again this week and the biggest weapon they go to on the ground will be Willis McGahee.

The importance of this game can’t be stressed enough and I think the Broncos will go into this game knowing this and will play it like it is a post season game and will come out on top. Yes, I think they will make the point spread and like I said above, I think they can win by 4 points.

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Will the Green Bay Packers beat the Chicago Bears in week 15?

Asking who will win the Packers and Bears game would be answered differently by fans of either team since hardcore fans would always choose their favorite. I am actually a fan of both teams and over the years each one has had different strong points.

This week on Sunday afternoon we get to see the number one and number two spot in the NFC North battle it out. These two football teams also happen to be the 3rd seed (Packers) and 6th seed (Bears) in the wild card round.

With 3 other teams only one game out from the Bears, Chicago has found themselves in another must win situation in many ways. Depending on the outcome of some of the other NFC matchups this week we may see a slight jockeying around of the wild card spots.

Besides the game with the NY Giants against the Atlanta Falcons, the Bears – Packers game is the most important head-to-head NFC Matchup this week. Can the Giants upset the favorite Atlanta Falcons?

But let’s get back to the Packers versus Bears. I really like the way that the Chicago Bears play defense. They play a lot of in-your-face or hands on football. The linebackers and tackles like to get up close and friendly.

They are ranked #6 in sacks and surprisingly the Packers are ranked #2 with 42 team sacks. Injured linebacker Clay Matthews has 9 of those and he is confirmed out for this game and although they really miss him on the line they have been compensating well.

What is the point spread between the Chicago Bears and the Green Bay Packers?

At the time I wrote this article late Tuesday night the line on the game had Green Bay favored by the sports books to win over Chicago by 3 points. I think the Packers can do that and would even go to 5 points.

I think the Packer offensive line will do a fair job of protecting quarterback Aaron Rodgers in the pocket long enough for him to get the job done efficiently. As we are winding down the season, similar to the way Rodgers has come from behind and made successful drives down field to win games, I think he will also do a good job of pulling his team into a more solid wild card seed spot.

The major problem is that Chicago stands in their way this week and they want that win and that wild card spot also, and they have all intention of fighting for it so I think this will be a good game. Just as the Chicago defense will make it hard on Rodgers and his offensive line, the Packer defense will be applying the pressure to Jay Cutler, quarterback for the Bears. Being #2 in sacks you they are going to be penetrating his line and forcing him to hurry his throws often.

This game is looking like not only will it end up being very important to the standings in the NFC, but also a game that will be a lot of fun to watch. Yes, bet the Packers to make the points against the Bears.

 

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